Introduction and objective. In the last decades, increasing attention has been paid to pollinosis. Numerous studies have been carried out concerning the pollination timing of allergenic plant species and the possibility to forecast its beginning and intensity using several statistical methods and models. This study proposes a simple and fast method to identify in advance the time lapse in which the pollination of some allergenic taxa should start. Materials and methods. The times of pollination of 14 taxa were recorded in the area of Perugia (Central Italy) by means of a 7-volumetric Hirst-Type pollen trap. For a 30-year period (1984–2013), annual starting dates were calculated for each taxa, using the 5% method (Lejoly-Gabriel). The time linkages between these starting dates were then estimated, considering them in pairs and calculating linear regression coefficients. Results. For the significantly linked species, forecasting models were obtained by means of linear regression analysis. To apply these models to the ongoing pollen season, pollination beginning of the earlier species has to be calculated using a sum-based method. From this date, through the obtained equations, it is possible to predict the approximate period in which the pollination of the second linked taxa should start. Conclusions. The possibility to predict the start of the pollen season of these taxa could be of great importance from the allergological point of view. In fact, an early or delayed flowering can have considerable effects in the prophylaxis programming and efficacy.
DOI: 10.5604/12321966.1196860 PMID 27007524 - click here to show this article in PubMed